Sunday, October 30, 2005

A reasoned perspective

Mr. Trita Parsi, an Iranian scholar who is completing his thesis on Israeli-Iranian relations under Mr. Fukuyama at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies has a new piece out in Open Democracy titled The Iran-Israel cold war which should be read very carefully.

His conclusion:

Ahmadinejad’s comments are irresponsible and repulsive, but there is little to suggest that they reflect a deliberate policy shift. Rather, the historic pattern of the Israeli-Iranian rivalry indicates that the former Tehran mayor committed yet another faux pas in the international arena.

Again, the ineptitude of Tehran has proven to be the primary source of Iran’s many problems.

I very much like what Mr. Parsi has done. My only (not so minor) misgiving is that I really do see Ahmadi Nejad’s offensive hot air as prelude to some well planned, concerted initiative to fundamentally alter the position of the Iranian regime long term.

The present status quo—and its centre of gravity, the deadlock of the nuclear standoff—can’t be maintained forever.

It is either stand back and allow the chips to fall where they may thus further threatening the very existence of the regime or try to break out somehow.

Was it prudent? A miscalculation, overall? Will it pan out? Who knows?

But I can certainly appreciate the extra hard work it might take for me to put together the case I want given how the decks are so stacked in favour of other interpretations!

It’s good to know, though, that at least the Evil One sees it my way.

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